We all like to think we’re pros at predicting award show winners, but looking back at the Grammys, it’s obvious we should expect the unexpected.

Snubs and surprises are the name of the Grammy game, especially when it comes to the notoriously unpredictable Best New Artist category. This year’s race should prove no different, with five deserving contenders on the ballot: indie rocker Courtney Barnett, British crooner James Bay, country sensation Sam Hunt, powerhouse singer Tori Kelly, and pop chart-topper Meghan Trainor.

This category’s one of the most exciting of the night, and it’s even more fun to look back on to see which acts were once considered breakout phenomenons. Test your knowledge of the Best New Artist winners from the past 16 years by choosing who took out the trophy each year (and let us know how you do in the comments!).