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Can 'The Dark Knight Rises' Outgross 'The Avengers'?

It seemed like a foregone conclusion. Come July 20, "The Dark Knight Rises" would take its rightful place as ruler of the box office for the summer… but then that whole "Avengers" thing happened.

Marvel’s long-awaited dream to bring one of the pillars of their franchise was finally realized in May and — as we’re sure you’ve noticed —it  annihilated everything in its path with over $600 million in domestic earnings to date. That’s put a wrinkle in Warner Bros' hopes of ending Christopher Nolan’s "Batman" franchise with a loud bang.

"In April, it would have been rather unhinged to suggest that 'The Avengers' had a prayer of walking away as the champion of summer," says Keith Simanton, managing editor of IMDb. "Now, in my assessment, it appears that it’s 'The Dark Knight' who needs to…ahem, rise to the occasion."

Now, don’t get us wrong, "The Dark Knight Rises" is going to make a ton of money, but to get the weekly earning that "The Avengers" had will be a tougher hill to climb for the Caped Crusader. One, the competition is a lot stiffer. When "The Avengers" opened, the films out were "The Hunger Games," which by that point had already hit its peak, and underperformers "Dark Shadows," "The Dictator" and "Battleship." "The Dark Knight Rises" hits screens when the summer film lineup is at its heaviest, with "The Amazing Spider-Man," "Ted" and surprise hit "Magic Mike" in theaters, with "Total Recall" and "The Bourne Legacy" still to come.

The biggest obstacle facing "The Dark Knight Rises" from toppling "The Avengers" are 3-D glasses. Like them or not, those plastic shades have made blockbusters into steroid-sized moneymakers and "TDKR" isn’t gonna get any of it, while "The Avengers" soaked in the 3-D cash.

To just get to the monumental $200 million opening "The Avengers" had, Forbes.com writer Mark Hughes calculates that "The Dark Knight Rises" would have to sell at least three million more tickets on top of how many "The Avengers" sold.

And there are storyline issues, according to longtime MTV News contributor Ryan J. Downey, "I don't know that 'The Dark Knight Rises' will be bigger than 'The Dark Knight,' despite the excitement about the franchise. How could I say that? Two words: The Joker.

Not only was there a great deal of anticipation (and curiosity) about the late Heath Ledger's performance in the film, but The Joker is the most recognizable member of Batman's rogue's gallery. Yes, I read the Knightfall comics, but I'm also a guy with a Dark Phoenix half-sleeve tattoo on my arm. Folks who don't regularly attend Comic-Con have never heard of Bane. And in the earliest footage from the film, people who saw it couldn't really hear what he was saying.

While 'The Dark Knight Rises' is the final entry in a trilogy, 'The Avengers' was really something of a sequel to five other movies. Audiences loved the Marvel movies that led up to it and people were excited about the big payoff."

So, what have we learned? "The Avengers" has made a crap load of money and "The Dark Knight Rises" will make a crap load of money, but maybe not the amount all of us in the biz thought it would earlier this year. (Though we’ve been wrong before.)

But, isn’t that what we love about Batman? That he always seems to overcome the odds, however big they are?

"I would say that this is like two heavyweight fighters going at it,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of the box-office division at Hollywood.com. "'Avengers' has a tough number to beat, but I have rarely seen as much excitement for a movie as with 'The Dark Knight Rises.'"

So stay tuned… Same bat time… Same bat channel!

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