The screenplay races just may be the purest contests of the entire Oscar ceremony. After all, these are the awards where the presence of big movie stars or flashy special effects shouldn't matter. The Academy is voting exclusively on the merits of the words on the page. Here are the films whose stories I expect will make the cut this season:

Best Original Screenplay

Inglorious Basterds: How could Quentin Tarantino's war drama be considered anything but a lock for a nomination in the Best Original Screenplay category? This script is bursting with originality, from its controversial rewriting of WWII history to the spelling of its title. The typical Academy members may be a little too squeamish to hand QT a Best Picture or Best Director prize for such an unabashedly violent film, but they can't resist his stellar dialogue.

A Serious Man: Despite heaps of critical praise, the latest offering from the Coen brothers failed to ignite enough of a fire to establish itself as much of a contender for the major races, most likely due to its lack of big-name stars. A writing award would be the easiest way for the Academy to recognize the Coens' fine work without risking losing any glamour from the acting and Best Picture races.

Up: Pixar's latest may be one of the most visually beautiful films of the year, but it also told an emotionally rich story that still has people reaching for the Kleenex six months after it hit theaters. It also features the most realistic dog dialogue of all time.

(500) Days of Summer: Unfortunately, this innovative indie gem may seem like "too small" a film to secure a Best Picture nomination. Luckily, the Academy's rom-com prejudice doesn't seem to extend to the writing categories, which have shown love for films like Juno and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind in the past decade. Look for Summer to shine brightly here.

The Hurt Locker: The most honored film of the year is a safe bet to be nominated in pretty much every category except the acting races. This war drama most likely won't take home a writing award, but it won't be left out of the mix.

Possible spoilers: It's Complicated simply because it's Nancy Meyers , and Avatar, simply because it's Avatar.

Best Adapted Screenplay

An Education: I, for one, would be perfectly OK if the Academy called off the race and just handed the award directly to Nick Hornby for his sparkling story about a young girl ready to give up her schoolbooks for some real world lessons.

Up in the Air: It's funny, it's timely, it gives good banter to glamorous movie stars, and it leaves the audience with some things to think about. Up in the Air may be losing its front-runner status in the Best Picture race, but it is definitely the film to beat here.

Fantastic Mr. Fox: Like the aforementioned Quentin Tarantino, Wes Anderson is an offbeat writer/director who the Academy may prefer to recognize for his writing rather than his directing. Hopefully they'll find this comedy about the existential angst of a restless fox as fantastic as the Film.com staff did.

A Single Man and Precious: Look for the last two slots in this category to be filled by two moving adaptations of two equally moving novels.

Possible Spoilers: District 9 and Crazy Heart have both picked up enough smaller prizes that they shouldn't be counted out here yet.