That would mean a dominating performance from "The Social Network," which nabbed four Globes, including Best Motion Picture - Drama and Best Director. But "The King's Speech" is on the rise, locking up 12 Oscar nominations last week after Colin Firth won best dramatic actor at the Globes. And never count out, for that matter, "True Grit," which rebounded from a shutout in the Globe nominations to become a surprise box office hit ($148 million and counting) and then garner 10 Oscar nods. Oh, and today is Christian Bale's birthday, and the birthday boy could well walk away with supporting actor statue for "The Fighter."

All of which is to say: we have our suspicions and our theories, our personal favs and hoped-for dark horses, but there's no way to tell what's actually gonna go down until the show goes live. By now, the celebs like James Franco, Natalie Portman and Justin Timberlake have sashayed down the red carpet, done their best to avoid the rain, and entered the Shrine Exposition Center in Los Angeles. The curtain rises in a matter of minutes. And MTV News is ready to rock with our SAG Awards live blog. Keep hitting refresh on your browser to find out the very latest news and analysis from the show.

10:04 p.m. OK, that's it for us tonight. Thanks for reading along. Goodnight, and good luck!

10:02 p.m. What does this mean for next month's Academy Awards? "Inglourious Basterds" won last year, only to lose out to "The Hurt Locker" at the Oscars. The year before, "Slumdog Millionaire" triumphed at both ceremonies. The lesson? Drawing lessons about the Oscars from the SAGs is a dangerous proposition.

10:00 p.m. "Thank you for joining the celebration. Goodnight everybody."

9:59 p.m. Shout-out to "the delicious Claire Bloom." Indeed.

9:59 p.m. His castmates are giving Geoffrey Rush a very wide berth. Is he contagious or something?

9:58 p.m. Spotted: Harvey Weinstein doling out some serious high-fives to his cast.

9:57 p.m. Best picture goes to the cast of "King's Speech"!!

9:56 p.m. And the win for best beard goes to...Donald Sutherland!

9:55 p.m. Firth: shy, self-effacing, funny, touched -- that's everything one can hope for in an acceptance speech.

9:54 p.m. Yep, it's Firth. No one can diminish what he accomplished in front of the camera. To capture that speech impediment for "King's Speech" was a staggering achievement.

9:52 p.m. I'll say this about the best actor category: Robert Duvall deserves more recognition than he's received for "Get Low." He deserves to win a few of these awards. He gave it his all. But this is Firth's year. Hooray for conventional wisdom!

9:51 p.m. We're at the homestretch. Who ya got: "Social Network" or "King's Speech"?

9:45 p.m. Yes, she mentioned Millepied. No she did not refer to shagging him.

9:44 p.m. The wins goes to Portman. Think she'll talk about sleeping with her co-star and baby daddy, Benjamin Millepied, again?

9:43 p.m. Can anyone but Portman possibly win outstanding actress? This year has delivered such a strong collection of contenders, but Portman has been utterly dominant during these awards shows. And with good reason.

9:41 p.m. We now know why Dicky ran up on stage: Mark Wahlberg told him too. Wahlberg, however, didn't seem to have warned Bale. Christian looked very surprised.

9:40 p.m. Do show producers dare play Bale off with music? You don't want to cross that guy, right?

9:37 p.m. Bale it is. No upsets in the movie categories just yet. Looks like Bale trimmed those out-of-control locks since the Globes. Looking sharp!

9:38 p.m. I thought we were about to have a Kanye moment there. But it turns out that's Dicky Eklund, whom Bale portrayed in "The Fighter."

9:36 p.m. Will Bale lose out on his 37th birthday? Outstanding actor in a supporting role is his to lose. Though I happen to think Jeremy Renner knocked it outta the park in "The Town."

9:34 p.m. The announcement is made in-house again: "Show is running long, please keep speeches to 45 seconds."

9:33 p.m. Still waiting on a slew of movie awards. Can "King's Speech" reverse the "Social Network" momentum and take home the top film award?

9:30 p.m. Slow fade to commercial. Appropriate.

9:27 p.m. Time for "In Memoriam." Shout-outs to Dennis Hopper, Leslie Nielsen, Gary Coleman, Rue McClanahan, Fess Parker, Lena Horne, Lynn Redgrave, Gloria Stuart, Patricia Neal, and many, many more.

9:25 p.m. Danes didn't get the post-Leo message, huh?

9:23 p.m. Yes, she can. And I have to say, I like her SAG dress much better than than day-glo frock she tried on a few weeks ago. Congrats, Miss Danes.

9:23 p.m. Claire Danes owned the Globes in this category. Can she bring home the SAG win for best actress in a TV movie or mini-series?

9:21 p.m. Hey, maybe Mark Zuckerberg will crash Jesse Eisenberg's moment on the SAG stage too. What'd you think of his "SNL" appearance? Such an amazing sight, but I wish the writers had given them more to work with.

9:20 p.m. My gut was telling me that Patrick Stewart doing Shakespeare was a lock for a SAG, but Al Pacino wins best actor in a TV movie or mini-series for "You Don't Know Jack."

9:18 p.m. Saw John Goodman in Kevin Smith's "Red State" at Sundance. I had very mixed feelings about the film, but he was fantastic!

9:13 p.m. About 45 minutes left. When are the major movie awards gonna get started? Anyone think Portman or Firth will fall victim to an upset?

9:10 p.m. Ernie brought the crowd to its feet. Would have loved, however, if he had taken a page from Robert De Niro's Globe speech for lifetime achievement and brought the funny.

9:09 p.m. Wait, a second intro for Borgnine? Hey, great to see ya, Morgan Freeman, but this is just straaaange.

9:07 p.m. I'm told by an insider that after Melissa Leo won her award, the announcer came on the loud-speaker and told winners to give shorter speeches. Ouch.

9:05 p.m. This is one of the strangest tributes I've ever seen on an awards show. The voiceover guy has a tone to his voice like he's about to start making fun of Borgnine any minute.

9:01 p.m. Shout-out to Ernest Borgnine, 94 years young and well-deserving of the SAG lifetime achievement award! 164 films on his resume. Damn, son!

8:59 p.m. Is it just me, or has Natalie Portman's baby bump tripled in size since the Globes? She's got that luminous pregnant glow too.

8:59 p.m. We're almost halfway through the show. Time to get down and dirty with the movie awards.

8:52 p.m. I love the fact that the actors get to accept the awards for best shows -- rather than producers -- but both Ed O'Neill and Buscemi delivered duds up there on the stage.

8:51 p.m. "Glee" won best comedic ensemble last year. But look at that! "Modern Family" comes out with a surprise win. Biggest upset of the night.

8:46 p.m. It took Betty 89 years to even get a SAG nomination?!

8:45 p.m. Yep, the universe was listening. Betty White is going to dominate 2011 as well. She wins best comedic actress for "Hot in Cleveland."

8:43 p.m. Looking at Jon Hamm up there on the stage, I can't help wondering what he would have been like as Superman. Lot of people were rooting for him. Alas, we can put those thoughts -- and that rooting -- to rest. Henry Cavill was announced today as the next big-screen Clark Kent.

8:41 p.m. Quite an O-face from Alec Baldwin after winning best comedic actor for "30 Rock." Dude, this is your fifth straight win!

8:39 p.m. Can anyone about that Amy Poehler's "Parks and Recreation" gets better every season? So happy that the NBC comedy is back on the lineup.

8:31 p.m. The award goes to Leo. I also chatted with her in Sundance. She was so delightfully self-deprecating about all this awards-season love. And...she almost tripped going up there! But still gave the night's best speech thus far. You can get political whenever you want, sister!

8:29 p.m. Look like it's gonna be, once again, "The Fighter" vs. "The Fighter" for outstanding female actor in a supporting role. Melissa Leo won the Globe Award. Can she take down Amy Adams once again?

8:27 p.m. Hey Dennis Haysbert. I chatted with him at Sundance a few days ago. He stars with Tobey Maguire in "The Details," an amazing new dark, dark comedy. They play basketball buddies, and according to Haysbert, Maguire didn't dare try to take the rock inside when they were playing one-on-one in their spare time.

8:25 p.m. Hey, second Teamsters shout-out of the night. Union pride in the house!

8:24 p.m. Um, Steve? You did better the first time. Guess you're not ready to go off-book during an acceptance speech.

8:23 p.m. It's a "Boardwalk Empire" kind of evening. After winning at the Globes, the freshman HBO takes home best dramatic series. Welcome back to the stage, Mr. Buscemi.

8:19 p.m. And we're back from the first commercial break. Taye Diggs is a lucky man. Sofia Vergara is looking lovely and a form-fitting blue dress.

8:12 p.m. Individual "Mad Men" actors just can't catch a break at the SAGs. Sorry Elizabeth Moss! Julianna Margulies wins best actress in a dramatic series. She's looking stunning in a red dress. And she thanked the Teamsters! Huzzah!

8:06 p.m. Congrats and all to Steve Buscemi ("Boardwalk Empire") for winning best male actor in a drama series, but I've got to say that Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") got robbed! Third season of "BB" is as good as small-screen entertainment gets. For some reason, though, the SAGs have never had the "BB" love like the Emmys.

8:04 p.m. Can we all agree that Betty White should get to dominate more than one year? Let's make 2011 that lady's year too.

8:00 p.m. My takeaway from that intro? The SAG statue is super creepy: no mouth and no genitals. Is there a metaphor there?

7:59 p.m. One minute to go! In case you were wondering how Hollywood conquers an awards show in the rain, MTV News staffer Kara Warner has got your answer: Vacuums!