Beyonce Over Britney? Eminem Tops Kanye? Predicting The 2009 Video Music Award Winners

We try to guess who's going to take home some Moonmen, in Bigger Than the Sound.

Last year, when I was apparently fearless (the economy was better back then, after all), I complained that predicting the winners at the MTV Video Music Awards was impossible. Of course, after spending something like 400 words expressing the futility of trying to guess who will win, I actually nailed 50 percent of my predictions, including my big-money bet that Britney’s “Piece of Me” would be named Video of the Year.

So, emboldened by last year’s success, I’m putting on my prognostication cap (and cape and striped vest) once again and attempting to predict the winners of the 2009 MTV Video Music Awards. Nominees were announced Tuesday , and it’s shaping up to be a battle of the divas — VMA fave Beyoncé and upstart Lady Gaga have the most nods with nine each, and Britney is close behind with seven — but does that mean it’s gonna be Ladies Night at the VMAs?

Shoot, if I knew that, I’d be a rich, rich man (confidentially, I have a big-time gambling problem). So, I’m following the same formula I used last year — throwing logic to the wind, ignoring sales figures and facts and simply going with my gut. Here are my 2009 Video Music Award predictions.

BEST MALE VIDEO

Nominees:
Eminem, “We Made You”
Jay-Z, “D.O.A. (Death of Auto-Tune)”
Kanye West, “Love Lockdown”
Ne-Yo, “Miss Independent”
T.I. (featuring Rihanna), “Live Your Life”

Logic Would Dictate: Jay-Z’s “D.O.A.” is a noir-ish update of Michelangelo Antonioni’s angsty, arty 1970 film “Zabriskie Point” … it is angry and stylish and it features a cameo by Harvey Keitel! Kanye’s “Love Lockdown” is a pitch-perfect, super-slick remake of “American Psycho” (right down to the minimalist decor), only with tribal dancers replacing the Genesis worship. Seriously, re-read those sentences and tell me why either video shouldn’t win here.

But Illogically: Eminem’s video makes fun of Bret Michaels and Kim Kardashian!

So, The Winner Is: This is one of four categories that Em and Kanye go head-to-head in — so one of them has to take this. Let’s go with my illogical pick: Eminem.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

Nominees
Beyoncé, “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)”
Katy Perry, “Hot N Cold”
Kelly Clarkson, “My Life Would Suck Without You”
Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”
Pink, “So What”
Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

Logic Would Dictate: “Single Ladies” was one of 2008′s most massive songs and the video became a pop-culture sensation, famously parodied on “Saturday Night Live” and re-enacted countless times on YouTube.

But Illogically: Lady Gaga’s “Poker Face” features a pair of Great Danes, a lot of lycra and gratuitous poolside cavorting.

So, The Winner Is: Beyoncé. In an era when music videos are increasingly disposable, “Single Ladies” managed to stick (and take on a life of its own), which means that it could be a pretty big night for B.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Nominees
A. R. Rahman & Pussycat Dolls (featuring Nicole Scherzinger), “Jai Ho! (You Are My Destiny)”
Beyoncé, “Singles Lades (Put a Ring On It)”
Britney Spears, “Circus”
Ciara (featuring Justin Timberlake), “Love Sex Magic”
Kristinia DeBarge, “Goodbye”

Logic Would Dictate: I think this category was called “Best Dancing in a Video” last year … regardless, at this point, even your aunt in Toledo probably knows the “Single Ladies” dance, which has got to make it the favorite here. But Ciara and JT raised temperatures with their moves in “Love Sex Magic,” so they deserve some consideration here, too.

But Illogically: BRITNEY!!!

So, The Winner Is: Your aunt is gonna be very excited (and might just throw out her hip in the process): Beyoncé wins again.

BEST ROCK VIDEO

Nominees
Coldplay, “Viva la Vida”
Fall Out Boy, “I Don’t Care”
Green Day, “21 Guns”
Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody”
Paramore, “Decode”

Logic Would Dictate: This boils down to a three-horse race between Green Day, the Kings and Paramore.

But Illogically: FOB have Wentz. Paramore have Williams. The Kings of Leon are comprised of three super-rugged brothers and their one ultra-handsome cousin. Never underestimate the power of hotness!

So, The Winner Is: Oh, wait, this is the Paramore song from “Twilight”? In that case, it wins by a mile.

BEST HIP-HOP VIDEO

Nominees
Asher Roth, “I Love College”
Eminem, “We Made You”
Flo Rida, “Right Round”
Jay-Z, “D.O.A. (Death of Auto-Tune)”
Kanye West, “Love Lockdown”

Logic Would Dictate: There are three potential winners here — I think you can probably guess who they are.

But Illogically: Asher Roth loves college! On second thought, even illogically the dude has a long climb here.

So, The Winner Is: Kanye strikes back at Em, although, by design, “Love Lockdown” isn’t a very hip-hop song.

BEST POP VIDEO

Nominees
Beyoncé, “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)”
Britney Spears, “Womanizer”
Cobra Starship (featuring Leighton Meester), “Good Girls Go Bad”
Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”
Wisin y Yandel, “Abusadora”

Logic Would Dictate: Britney won this last year. Lady Gaga seems to be guided by some sort of higher pop power. Cobra Starship have one of the summer’s most unlikely hits.

But Illogically: Wisin y Yandel, who are huge in the reggaetón world but face tough odds here.

So, The Winner Is: I am seriously tempted to go with the reggaetón dudes but, in a pinch, I’m gonna say Gaga. This might be the most wide-open category at the 2009 VMAs.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominees
3OH!3, “Don’t Trust Me”
Asher Roth, “I Love College”
Drake, “Best I Ever Had”
Kid Cudi, “Day ‘N Nite”
Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”

Logic Would Dictate: This one is between Gaga and Drake. The former seems to have grabbed pop music by its platinum roots and dragged it into the 22nd century and the latter is so ubiquitous that he might actually be able to teleport.

But Illogically: Asher Roth could pull off an upset.

So, The Winner Is: It’ll be close, but I’m going with Gaga, though Drake could sway the sympathy voters with his recent knee injuries .

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

Beyoncé, “Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)”
Britney Spears, “Womanizer”
Eminem, “We Made You”
Kanye West, “Love Lockdown”
Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”

Logic Would Dictate: You could honestly make a case for any of these videos taking home the night’s biggest award. “Single Ladies” was massive. “Womanizer” proved Britney’s back for good. “We Made You” was classic Eminem. “Love Lockdown” was arty cool. And “Poker Face” might just be the rallying cry for a new generation of pop provocateurs. So, really, take your pick.

But Illogically: Somehow, Asher Roth wins.

So, The Winner Is: I am less certain about this than pretty much any other category but, when it comes down to it, you gotta go with the video that had the biggest impact … the one that made kids on YouTube dance … the one that inspired Justin Timberlake to slap on a unitard. Which means I’m going with Beyoncé — it’s the most illogically logical choice after all.

Questions? Concerns? Hit me up at BTTS@MTVStaff.com.