Britney Spears Wins Video Of The Year — And Other VMA Predictions, In Bigger Than The Sound

Jonas Brothers, Tokio Hotel, Paramore, Lil Wayne also look promising, but trying to predict VMA winners is a losing proposition ...

On The Record: Commence The Nonsense

Picking a winner at the Video Music Awards is a lot like trying to comprehend Courtney Love’s MySpace blog or explain this photo of Metallica’s James Hetfield. It’s impossible to do because it follows no discernable logic.

From the ever-evolving field of categories (Ringtone of the Year, you will be missed) to the methods by which the nominees and winners are selected, the VMAs have managed to spin a wholly singular world for themselves in which reality does not always apply. And in the process, they’ve also created a legacy that makes writing things like “2006 Video of the Year: Panic at the Disco’s ‘I Write Sins Not Tragedies,’ ” and “multiple-award winner Ricky Martin” possible.

Of course, it has also made for some fantastic things too — like some of the winners of Best Rap Video and Best New Artist. And this year, things are threatening to make even less sense than usual, because fans have done a lot of the picking (note: the Best New Artist poll is open until September 7), a move that has opened the awards to an even less reality-based realm: the world of online fandom. The results include things like Britney Spears — whose appearance at the VMAs was just announced — and the Pussycat Dolls landing Video of the Year nods, the Jonas Brothers and Tokio Hotel going head-to-head for Best Pop Video, and Danity Kane have as many nominations (two) as Rihanna and Mary J. Blige … combined.

When I looked at this year’s list of VMA nominees, I was confused — so, naturally, that meant I had to write a column about it. And since I am a glutton for punishment, I decided to try the impossible: apply some logic and attempt to predict the winners of the 2008 Video Music Awards. Please note that I have no advance knowledge of any VMA winners. The way 2008 is shaping up, maybe we’ll just have everyone win.

BEST MALE VIDEO

Nominees

Chris Brown “With You”

Lil Wayne “Lollipop”

Flo Rida “Low”

T.I. “No Matter What”

Usher “Love in This Club”

Logic Would Dictate: Since T.I. went to the trouble to make a solid, simple (and really pretty powerful) video, he’d be the one to take home the Moonman.

But Illogically: Hey, Wayne’s clip has half-naked dancers and a party bus in it! And it takes place in Vegas! And there’s this one part where he sorta plays guitar, too! Plus he sold a million albums in a week ! WOOOOOO!

So, The Winner Is: I’m gonna say that substance trumps style here and T.I. comes out on top. Of course, that means I will be wrong and Flo Rida will win. Also, did you know that in 1985, Bruce Springsteen won this award? That thud you just heard was me slamming my head against my keyboard.

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

Nominees

Mariah Carey “Touch My Body”

Katy Perry “I Kissed a Girl”

Rihanna “Take a Bow”

Jordin Sparks “No Air”

Britney Spears “Piece of Me”

Logic Would Dictate: Mariah’s album and Jordin’s solo career aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, and Britney Spears is barely known as a recording artist anymore, so that’s 60 percent of the category eliminated right there. It’s really a toss-up between Rih-Rih, who’s arguably the hugest pop star in the world right now, and Katy Perry, who, based on the ubiquity of “I Kissed a Girl” (seriously, it’s like a zombie at this point — it cannot and will not be stopped until it feasts on your brains) is quickly becoming the Jonathan Stewart of the VMAs: She’s a definite sleeper pick.

But Illogically: OMG, did you know Mariah and Britney have been nominated for something like 384 VMAs but neither of them has ever won an award?!?! These transgressions must be rectified!

So, The Winner Is: I think Britney gets her win later in the night, and Rihanna makes too much sense here, so hey, let’s just go ahead and give it to Katy Perry. She kissed a girl, after all. And she liked it!

BEST DANCING IN A VIDEO

Nominees

Chris Brown “Forever”

Danity Kane “Damaged”

Madonna “4 Minutes”

Ne-Yo “Closer”

Pussycat Dolls “When I Grow Up”

Logic Would Dictate: I’m still trying to figure out why this category isn’t called Best Dance Video anymore. Quickly realizing that the question is moot, I’ll move on to the begrudging confession that this is a pretty solid field, and realistically, four of the five noms have a legitimate shot at winning here (sorry Ne-Yo). Perhaps the sympathy vote swings to Madonna, if only because she somehow managed to avoid shattering her hip in “4 Minutes” (five minutes might be a different story …)

But Illogically: Chris Brown is hot! PCD and Danity Kane are hot! Everyone is hot! Advantage: Push.

So, The Winner Is: In a pinch, I’ll say PCD. One of them can stick her leg straight up in the air. Which one? Does it even matter?

BEST ROCK VIDEO

Nominees

Fall Out Boy “Beat It”

Foo Fighters “The Pretender”

Linkin Park “Shadow of the Day”

Paramore “CrushCrushCrush”

Slipknot “Psychosocial”

Logic Would Dictate: Slipknot rock way harder than any of the other nominees here (probably more than all of them combined) and they made a killer video (that could probably actually kill you), so they win going away. However, do not discount the Foos wrangling the grizzled old dude (read: over 30) vote … er, who am I kidding? Over-30s don’t vote in these things!

But Illogically: FOB have Pete Wentz. Paramore have Hayley Williams. Linkin Park are arguably one of the 10 biggest rock acts on the planet (wait, that’s actually logical). The Foo Fighters are old. Slipknot are too scary.

So, The Winner Is: Paramore. They’ve blasted out of nowhere and a win here is icing on the cake. Also, it’s about time a female-fronted band won this award.

BEST HIP-HOP VIDEO

Nominees

Mary J. Blige “Just Fine”

Lupe Fiasco “Superstar”

Flo Rida “Low”

Lil Wayne “Lollipop”

Kanye West “Homecoming”

Logic Would Dictate: Mary J’s video is completely batsh– crazy, so it would be awesome if she won. Kanye could win, if only because show producers are probably hoping to avoid a full-blown hostage situation backstage . Weezy is probably the biggest name in hip-hop right now, so it would make sense for him to take home the Moonman. Also, Lupe Fiasco’s name-recognition doesn’t come close to any of the others here, so he’s out.

But Illogically: Lupe is your favorite rapper’s favorite rapper! He’s the truest hip-hop cat in this category! He’s got the cred and … ah, who am I kidding?

So, The Winner Is: Wayne. This is his moment, even though I am 85 percent sure he’s not even aware that he’s living in it.

BEST POP VIDEO

Nominees

Danity Kane “Damaged”

Jonas Brothers “Burnin’ Up”

Panic at the Disco “Nine in the Afternoon”

Britney Spears “Piece of Me”

Tokio Hotel “Ready, Set, Go!”

Logic Would Dictate: By far the most heated category of the night, particularly if you’re a 13-year-old girl or a cat-hair-coated shut-in, Best Pop is either gonna go to the squeaky clean Jonas boys or the follically fabulous Tokio Hotel. For they are the Highlanders of tween pop, and there can be no other way.

But Illogically: Hey, Britney’s in this category, and stranger things have happened. And the most illogical move would be to give this to Panic, so you can’t count them out either.

So, The Winner Is: The Jonas Brothers. The unstoppable, hormonally charged train rolls on — which is a shame, because Tokio Hotel’s acceptance speech could’ve been the most amazing thing of all time. Have you ever seen a porcupine-boychild weep with joy?

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominees

Miley Cyrus “7 Things”

Katy Perry “I Kissed a Girl”

Jordin Sparks “No Air”

Taylor Swift “Tears on My Guitar”

Tokio Hotel “Ready, Set, Go!”

Logic Would Dictate: Miley, Miley, Miley. And more Miley. She’s a ginormous, borderline frightening global brand at this point, and I actually like her song , so she’d be the logical, smart choice. Although Tokio Hotel fans are beyond fanatical, and since online voting is determining BNA, they might actually be the favorites here. Taylor Swift is legitimately talented, but hey, don’t hold it against her, voters!

But Illogically: Jordin Sparks is a very nice, very sweet girl. She won “American Idol.” People seem to like her. Her dad played in the NFL. So … uh, did I mention Katy Perry likes kissing girls?

So, The Winner Is: I’m saying Miley, but it could very well be Tokio, too. Regardless, tweenage hearts will be broken.

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

Nominees

Chris Brown “Forever”

Jonas Brothers “Burnin’ Up”

Pussycat Dolls “When I Grow Up”

Britney Spears “Piece of Me”

The Ting Tings “Shut Up and Let Me Go”

Logic Would Dictate: This is a category supposedly dedicated to honoring the most amazing, iconic video of the year, yet it features the Jonas Brothers, PCD and Britney Spears. (Also, three of the song titles have the word “up” in them. Wonder what that means …?) Logic does not apply.

But Illogically: If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve probably heard that poor Britney has been nominated 19 times for a Moonman, but she’s yet to win a single one. Add to that, the last few years have been rather rough on her. Redemption and validation: Can you think of two more compelling story lines to carry on through to the very last award of the night?

So, The Winner Is: In a year without a singularly iconic video, you’ve gotta give Video of the Year to the biggest icon in the group. So I’m picking Britney Spears to win. Partially because of everything I’ve just written, but also because I can’t think of a more illogical way to cap off the night.

Questions? Concerns? VMA Picks Of Your Own? Send ‘Em To Me at BTTS@MTVStaff.com.

It’s a wrap! Now that the 2008 VMAs have come and gone, check out all the winners, the most surprising moments, the best red-carpet fashions and more at VMA.MTV.com.

[This story was originally published at 4:52 pm E.T. on 9.3.2008]