There’s always something about the last performance night on American Idol that feels “off.” The combination of a repeat song and an invariably awful “winner’s song” means a viewer is almost guaranteed to be bored for 2/3 of the show. And since both finalists have spent at least three months building a fanbase, it’s not like they are singing to change any minds. You can lose the last night and still win Idol.

But just to be on the safe side, Phillip Phillips probably came into Tuesday with a lead over Jessica Sanchez, and didn’t do anything to lose it. What’s more, the producers and judges have clearly stopped trying to fight the prospect of a fifth straight male winner, as the Phillip bandwagon must have made poor Jessica feel like roadkill in the making.

The night’s first song was chosen by the biggest of Idol bigwigs, Simon Fuller, who might want to parcel out these duties to his secretary or chauffeur next time around. His beyond trite picks of “I Have Nothing” for Jessica (done numerous times on Idol, and massacred by Shannon Magrane as recently as March) and “Stand by Me” for Phillip did neither any favors. Jessica won the round – she doesn’t miss notes, and can do a Whitney imitation in her sleep – but it couldn’t help her much. Phillip did his sleepy thing, though his energy level seemed worse than usual much of Tuesday (he faces surgery for his kidney issues before long).

Jessica had a fairly decided advantage, however, on the night’s repeat song. She chose “The Prayer,” which she had performed for her final solo prior to the top 24 selection (Idol ran an unusually long snippet of it at the time, a sign of its quality). Another ballad was a risk, but her comfort level with this piece of Bocelli cheese is such that she couldn’t pass it up, and it was the night’s obvious standout. Phillip went with his Billy Joel night number, “Movin’ Out,” and if you liked it then, you no doubt liked it now.  I thought it was too laid back to fit with Joel’s sarcastic lyrics, and there were better options for him.

Strangely however, after the second song, Jennifer Lopez declared Phillip the winner of the round, on the grounds that Jessica had done that before. That kind of critique after both had done a repeat song, and after Phillip had performed every song exactly the same way since Martin Luther King Day, was the first little hint that a fix might be in. Jessica’s winner’s song was the usual piece of Idol coronation dreck, “Change Nothing,” which had overly mature lyrics but otherwise wasn’t bad as these things go. The judges all ripped the song choice, though, leading to the obvious question: were there any good songs presented to Jessica as options to pick from? She went with the usual big ballad and maybe that was a mistake, but she may not have had a superior choice.

Phillip’s final song was “Home,” an acoustic number that mixed elements of Mumford & Sons, Coldplay’s “Paradise,” and Paul Simon’s global excursions into a likable little pastry that might actually allow an Idol veteran to crack the adult alternative chart, something even Crystal Bowersox couldn’t manage. Phillip obviously liked the song, a gang of drummers appeared onstage, he had backing vocalist help with the high notes (no judge mentioned this, naturally), and since he was singing last, it all had the feel of a climax. The judges got to their feet when he finished, something they notably did not do after “The Prayer,” and the knockout was complete.

Jessica outsang Phillip on two songs, but history is written by the winners, and people will likely remember nothing but “Home” from Tuesday’s show. This is all assuming Phillip does win. The voters have been known to reject the obvious tilt of the judges before – but they have always done so to favor a male singer (Kris Allen, Lee DeWyze). The audience has never sided with a female after being told the guy was better, and I’m not going to argue against a ten-year precedent now. The Idol title will be heading home to Leesburg, Georgia.