Christmas is coming early for Justin Bieber

Based on early estimates, it looks as if his Under the Mistletoe holiday album will claim the #1 spot on the Billboard 200 with sales in the neighborhood of 200,000 to 225,000 copies.

If those figures hold — and if Bieber can withstand a late charge from rapper Wale's Ambition — it will give the teen-pop sensation his second consecutive #1 debut, following in the footsteps of his My World 2.0 disc, which topped the charts in March 2010 with sales of more than 280,000 copies.

According to industry site HITS Daily Double, with a little more than half of the nation's retailers reporting sales, Mistletoe has already moved more than 150,000 units and holds a 40,000-album lead over Ambition.

And though, in recent days, he's been facing ongoing questions about the paternity suit filed against him by a 20-year-old woman, Bieber has been promoting Under the Mistletoe hard, logging a string of high-profile appearances that included premiering the video for the first single, "Mistletoe," live on MTV as well as interviews and performances on NBC's "Today" show, "Dancing With the Stars" and "The X Factor."

He also announced the formation of his Believe Charity Drive — he'll donate portions of the sales of Mistletoe to a spate of charitable organizations — and shot a pair of new videos for tracks on the album, including a "classic" clip with Mariah Carey on a version of her "All I Want for Christmas Is You" and a team-up with Boyz II Men on "Fa La La."

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