It's getting harder and harder to predict which "American Idol" finalist is headed for the door each week, as seeming also-rans are suddenly surging (Katie Stevens), while onetime front-runners continue to slide down the rankings (Andrew Garcia).

That might explain why our "Idol" brain trust was deeply divided this week when we asked who they thought would be eliminated after Tuesday night's Lennon/McCartney songbook parade. While Michael Lynche, Casey James and Crystal Bowersox bolstered their credentials with more dependable performances, the rest of the field was solid, if at times underwhelming.

That said, MTV's "Idol" guru Jim Cantiello said teen Aaron Kelly's mournful take on "The Long and Winding Road," which opened the show, didn't do the high schooler any favors. "Aaron Kelly got lost on a long and winding road and forgot to leave bread crumbs," Cantiello quipped. "He opened the night on a forgettable (and regrettable) note. Although past seasons would indicate the grandma vote could take him very far, I think grannies moved over to the other young'un, Katie Stevens, after she gave her best performance yet."

Randy Jackson called the performance "sleepy," and Simon Cowell said Kelly was running out of chances to be young and relevant and show that he can take some risks. "The only door that road is leading him to is an emergency exit ... See you on tour, Aaron!" Cantiello said.

The verdict was much different for MJ Santilli, webmaster of leading "Idol" blog MJsBigBlog.com. "I figured Katie Stevens was next, until she stepped up her game with a heartfelt performance of 'Let It Be,' " she said. "Tim Urban's mop-top came in handy this week, as he delivered a competent 'All My Loving.' I can't imagine he'll be leaving this week. Aaron Kelly had the weakest performance of the night, but I think his tween fans will carry him through to another week."

With those likely suspects out of the way, Santilli said the only logical choice left was slowly fading star Andrew Garcia, who has yet to live up to the early hype. "[His] Vegas-inspired 'Can't Buy Me Love' failed to impress the judges. I think his time is finally up," she said.

Who do you think will go home tonight? Share your own "Idol" predictions in the comments below.

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