Hopes were high that the long-awaited report from the Iraq Study Group would help pave the way for a relatively graceful U.S. exit from Iraq. But one week after the report was delivered to President Bush, the future of U.S. involvement in the conflict is as muddled as ever.
While aides have suggested that Bush will likely reject some, if not all, of the study's calls to initiate talks with Iran and Syria and begin a gradual pullback of U.S. troops, new polls show that the majority of Americans think the U.S. should begin an immediate pullback.
Another sign of trouble?
Bush has delayed his announcement of what the new Iraq strategy will be until early 2007, and the Saudi Arabian government — which has had traditionally strong ties to the United States and the Bush family — has said it would likely support the Sunni insurgents in Iraq if the U.S. were to pull out.
As the violence in Iraq continues to spiral out of control, the Iraqi government has asked for more responsibility, two new polls show Americans have less faith than ever in Bush's leadership in the war, and leading generals are poised to suggest that instead of pulling out, what the U.S. needs to do is send thousands more troops to get the situation under control. Here are the latest developments:
» The Iraqi government has given the U.S. a plan that calls for Iraqi troops to assume primary responsibility for security in Baghdad early next year, according to The New York Times, with American troops shifted to the capital's suburbs. While the plan works with the administration's desire for Iraqis to take on more responsibility for controlling violence — and it could reduce American casualties — there are concerns that it could look like the U.S. is standing aside as sectarian violence escalates.
» In an unexpected, troubling turn in the region, Saudi Arabia has told the administration that it might give financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in their conflict with Iraqi Shiites if the U.S. pulls its troops out of Iraq, the Times reported. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia gave that message to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks ago during Cheney's visit to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Abdullah also cautioned against the U.S. engaging in talks with Iran, a move that the Times said reflects the fear among America's Sunni Arab allies about Iran's rising influence in Iraq. The Saudis have been adamantly against a U.S. pullout because of fears that Iraq's minority Sunni Arab population could be massacred once the American presence is gone.
» As he continues to seek more input from sources in addition to the Iraq Study Group, Bush has delayed his planned announcement of a new strategy in Iraq until the new year. The reversal came just a few days after the administration said Bush would address the nation before Christmas on the topic. "He decided, frankly, that it's not ready yet," press secretary Tony Snow said. No timetable was given for when the speech might happen.
» Whatever Bush decides, it's likely not to sit well with Americans who now think the U.S. is losing the war in Iraq and support the Study Group's proposals to change course. In a new Washington Post/ ABC News survey, almost eight in 10 Americans favor changing the U.S. mission in Iraq from direct combat to training Iraqi troops. The majority also wants to pull out nearly all U.S. combat forces by early 2008 and engage in direct talks with Iran and Syria. The problem is, neither Bush nor Democratic leaders have embraced the bipartisan Study Group's proposals.
» The poll, which reported the lowest-ever approval for Bush on his handling of Iraq at 28 percent, also found that 52 percent of Americans think the U.S. is losing the war, up from 34 percent last year. Only 25 percent said they think the administration has a clear solution in Iraq, down 13 points since September. Support for the administration is down even among Republicans, with only 49 percent of people from the president's party saying he has a clear plan, down 22 points since September. Forty-six percent said they were for the Study Group plan, with 22 percent against it, and 69 percent said they favored withdrawing most combat forces by 2008.
» A similar Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg survey found that 76 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of Republicans thought U.S. troops should be withdrawn on a fixed timetable, while only 4 percent of Dems and 20 percent of Republicans favored sending more troops. Sixty-four percent favored direct talks with Iran and Syria, and 45 percent said they had more faith in Democrats to handle Iraq than Republicans, with 34 percent saying they had more confidence in Bush. An overwhelming majority, 70 percent, said they thought Bush should adopt the Study Group's recommendations for cutting military/economic support for Iraq unless the government shows progress in political reforms and national reconciliation. And, though Bush has denied it, nearly two-thirds said they believed Iraq has slipped into civil war.
» The reluctance to beef up the American presence will likely come up at a meeting scheduled for Wednesday (December 13) between Bush and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who will present a plan to "double down" in Iraq and substantially increase troops there, the Los Angeles Times reported. Military officials have argued that an intensified effort may be the only way to get the counterinsurgency strategy on the right path and provide a chance for victory, which could require anywhere from 20,000 to 40,000 additional troops. Military experts caution, however, that it could be a gamble, since any chance of success would require major changes in the Iraqi government and a willingness to confront the militias, which hasn't really happened so far.
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