Frank Ockenfels/FX

Who Will Die Next On American Horror Story: Roanoke?

There can be only one survivor

On American Horror Story: Roanoke, the time for make-believe is over. The most recent episode of the FX anthology finally revealed this season's hyped twist: The show we've been watching for the past five episodes, My Roanoke Nightmare, was a reality TV hit — and what we're about to watch is its ill-fated, Big Brother-esque followup, Return To Roanoke: 3 Days In Hell.

Thanks to a title card late in the episode, we know that everyone involved in the production of Return to Roanoke died "under mysterious circumstances," except for one, and what we're watching is an assemblage of found footage from the scene. Thus begins the real mystery of the season: Which character will make it out alive, and more importantly, how? After five episodes of Roanoke Nightmare, this kind of suspense is extremely satisfying.

Sadly, we can eliminate one name from our pool: Rory Monahan (Evan Peters). Rory met his bloody end towards the end of the episode when he was slashed and stabbed by the sister nurses, who finally found an 'R' to complete their M-U-R-D-E-R wall. So who's going to be next on The Butcher's chopping block? We've ranked the possibilities from most to least likely below. (Note: these are only the current participants staying in the mansion, not the production crew.)

  1. Monet Tumissee
    Frank Ockenfels/FX

    As much as it physically pains me to say this, Angela Bassett's character, Monet Tumissee, is the least essential part of the story. We know that after Roanoke Nightmare wrapped, she developed a drinking problem in order to cope with the murder she believes Lee committed. (Everyone thinks Lee murdered her husband Mason because I guess no one believes in actual ghosts.) As compelling as Bassett is on this show, she's not wrapped up in the love triangle between Shelby (Lily Rabe), Matt (André Holland), and actor Dominic Banks (Cuba Gooding Jr.); she's not Murphy's favorite final girl, Sarah Paulson; and she's not the real Lee (Adina Porter), who frankly has more information to share with the group. Sorry, Monet.

  2. Audrey Tindall
    Frank Ockenfels/FX

    Listen, if Paulson is the last one standing, I will scream. Peters's death was effective because it was so unexpected. Murphy could have dragged it out. After all, we knew the murder nurses needed an 'R' name — and Rory was the only one in the house. But he didn't. The show got down to business and killed him off on the first night of the Blood Moon. Will fellow AHS fave Paulson suffer the same fate? With Rory gone, she's the closest thing we have to comedic relief. For that reason alone, I don't see her sticking around for very long — unless Murphy's favorite Final Girl strikes again.

  3. Dominic Banks
    Frank Ockenfels/FX

    All we really need is one dramatic scene between Dominic and Matt, and then he's pretty disposable as a character. It's entirely likely that Matt has already made a deal with the Roanoke settler — why else would he sign on to do the show? — and if that's the case, Dominic is for sure a goner.

  4. Lee Harris
    FX

    Did crispy Mason come back to the mansion to get his revenge on Lee? Probably. Lee really only has to stick around long enough to reveal what really happened between her and Mason. Murphy has already revealed that Shelby, Matt, and Lee cannot be trusted, telling E! Online, "What they said and what they explained in their version of events is not actually the truth." So it's important that Lee, Shelby, and Matt survive long enough to divulge what really happened to them during the Blood Moon. Plus, it makes sense that the real Lee, Matt, and Shelby would be the last three standing. (Poor Flora.)

  5. Matt
    Frank Ockenfels/FX

    The show clearly wants us to think something's up with Matt. We have no idea why he joined the show, especially given the fact that he's upset with his estranged wife, Shelby, and he knows the true horrors that await him during the Blood Moon. Either he's completely given up on life, or he's made a deal with The Butcher. I'm siding with the latter. He's a little too calm for my liking. Plus, based on his version of events, we know that he and the Witch had a tryst in the woods — so maybe he made a deal with her. That being said, there's no way he survives. He's the Good Guy, and in the end, he'll make the ultimate sacrifice for his Final Girl... Shelby.

  6. Shelby
    Frank Ockenfels/FX

    Long live Murphy's new Scream Queen. Shelby wanted to do the show to reconnect with Matt, so what would be more horrible than watching the one you love be brutally murdered to spare your life? According to Murphy, the final episode of the season will focus on the survivor "what's going to happen to that person." Sure, maybe he's referring to Sidney (I really hope he's not; that guy deserves a horrible death), but Shelby makes the most sense. The needy, insecure yoga enthusiast becomes the ultimate Survivor. What a redemption arc! Better yet, what if she made a pact with The Butcher and orchestrated the entire thing? Now that would be straight-up awesome.