The Act of Shilling: Predicting the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes air on Sunday night, forever changing film history as we know it. In advance of this imminent paradigm shift, we predict the winners (and, as a result, also the losers).

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

blue is the warmest colour

One of these movies has gotten more attention than the rest, and that movie will probably win. Hopefully they let Léa Seydoux or Adèle Exarchopoulos accept the thing, because boy would Abdellatif Kechiche be insufferable on television.

Will Win: Blue Is the Warmest Color

Should Win: The Great Beauty

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

frozen

Not much contest here, really. With “The Wind Rises” over in Best Foreign Language Film, Disney’s biggest competition for the Oscar won’t get in the way of a Golden Globe victory.

Will Win: Frozen

Should Win: Frozen

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

It does seem a bit weird that the only animated film to win this in the last decade was “Happy Feet,” but there you have it. Even so, I still think “Frozen” takes this. Neither U2 nor Taylor Swift, nor even Coldplay has the sort of star-fueled momentum that Adele did last year. “Please Mr. Kennedy” has a shot, but it’s more of a ditty than an awards play and it’s not even original. Not that anyone cares, but they should! Never forget Mickey Woods.

Will Win: Frozen

Should Win: Frozen

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

GRAVITY

This one comes down to a stand-off between the two “trapped in a floating object” movies. It’s easy to give a lot of credit to a score when it seems as if it has more to do, given the absence of many actors and/or talking. “The Artist” won this, as well as “Life of Pi.” And while Alexander Ebert’s music for “All Is Lost” is the best in the category, “Gravity” is the more beloved film and so the Globe goes to Steven Price.

Will Win: Gravity

Should Win: All Is Lost

BEST SCREENPLAY

12-years-a-slave-2

This is the first indication of how much hustle “American Hustle” actually has, here and perhaps for the rest of the season. Maybe I’m an idiot but I’m also a bit of a skeptic. It just feels like a weird screenplay to award, especially considering that David O’Russell lost to Tarantino last year and “The Fighter” wasn’t even nominated two years before. My money, therefore, is going somewhere else.  “12 Years a Slave” is the other big Best Picture movie, so there we are.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: Her

BEST DIRECTOR

12_years_a_slave-620x349

It seems like an inevitability, and maybe it actually is? Again, when push comes to shove I think “12 Years a Slave” has more oomph than “American Hustle.” “Nebraska” and “Captain Phillips” are on the outside of this one. Alfonso Cuarón could sweep in and take this, winning for impressive management of a rich and technologically complex production à la Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo” win. But Cuarón isn’t Scorsese, and McQueen is more of a threat than Michel Hazanavicius, who Marty beat two years ago.

Will Win: Steve McQueen

Should Win: Steve McQueen

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Christian Bale;Jeremy Renner;Bradley Cooper

Well, I can’t very well predict a complete shut-out for “American Hustle,” can I? All things considered, this is probably its most likely victory. Sure, she just won last year but the HFPA isn’t exactly concerned about these things. Remember when Kate Winslet won two awards within about an hour? Admittedly that argument doesn’t hold up in court, but neither does the argument that Jennifer Lawrence gives the best supporting female performance of the year in “American Hustle.”

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

DALLAS-BUYERS-CLUB

Jared Leto does seem to be winning a lot of prizes, and I can’t imagine that will stop here. Most of the list falls into the “happy to be here” category, and Michael Fassbender hasn’t really been causing much of a stir when it comes to actual awards.

Will Win: Jared Leto

Should Win: Barkhad Abdi

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL / COMEDY

Frances Ha

Going out on a limb because that’s how brave we are at Film.com. Read more thoughts on this in yesterday’s special Greta Gerwig edition of The Act of Shilling.

Will Win: Greta Gerwig

Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL / COMEDY

Inside Llewyn Davis-1

This is a tricky one. On the one hand, the HFPA likes giving this to a performance in a musical. In the last ten years, the only man in a musical to lose was Daniel Day-Lewis in “Nine.” This is, admittedly an odd statistic but it also bodes well for Oscar Isaac. It’s either him or Bruce Dern, winning for a career of goodwill. Not that I’d be shocked if any of the other three took it, either. I’m predicting Isaac, but by a hair.

Will Win: Oscar Isaac

Should Win: Oscar Isaac

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

woody allen blue jasmine

No way around it, really. Just another stop on the way to the Oscar for Cate Blanchett. Which, for the record, is still awesome even though we all knew it was coming miles away.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

all-is-lost-main

This is Robert Redford’s first acting nomination at the Golden Globes. He’s already won Best Director and the Cecil B. DeMille award, the latter of which came two whole decades ago. The HFPA loves him, and they don’t seem to get as much opportunity to reward him as they’d like. As for the rest of the nominees, if I’m right that the Musical/Comedy acting categories will skew young and away from Streep and Dern, it makes sense that they’d feel more comfortable sticking with the old guard here. Sorry, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey.

Will Win: Robert Redford

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor 

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL / COMEDY

american-hustle-posters-sony

“American Hustle” may not sweep, but it probably has this one wrapped up. It did get seven nominations, after all, tied only with “12 Years a Slave” across the aisle in Drama. Yet without wins for screenplay, director or lead actress, it’ll be hard to make the argument that it’s the front-runner for Oscar. Sunday could be the night that takes the wind out of the “American Hustle” campaign’s wings.

Will Win: American Hustle

Should Win: Her

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

12-years-a-slave-2

“12 Years a Slave,” meanwhile, could very easily emerge from the Golden Globes as the big Oscar front-runner. And while it might not take screenplay and director on Sunday (though I’m betting on it), it’s definitely got Best Picture – Drama wrapped up. We will see what happens when we get Oscar nominations next week, but I think this is the moment when we get a clear frontrunner for the big prize.

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

Should Win: 12 Years a Slave