The 2013 MTV Movie Awards: We Predict the Winners

The MTV Movie Awards air their 21st annual show this Sunday night, and so we thought we'd try our hand at predicting the most reliably unpredictable awards show in the business. Who will win Best Shirtless Scene? Who will history remember as the deserving winner of Best Shirtless Scene? Behold our fearless predictions!

Movie of the Year

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"The Avengers"

"The Dark Knight Rises"

"Django Unchained"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

"Ted"

There's a terrible voice in the back of my head that the MTV voters might just backlash against the Seth MacFarlane backlash and choose "Ted." But the last decade has seen nothing but action blockbusters take the top prize (this will be the first time in five years that a "Twilight" film won't win), so I'd put money on "The Avengers."

Best Male Performance

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Ben Affleck – "Argo"

Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"

Channing Tatum – "Magic Mike"

Daniel Day-Lewis – "Lincoln"

Jamie Foxx – "Django Unchained"

Overlap with the Oscars is rare, so let's set aside DDL and Ben Affleck for a moment. Cooper's "Hangover" caché probably gives him a momentary advantage, but I think it comes down to Jamie Foxx vs. Channing Tatum. Tatum is the younger one, the more "now" of the two, and the one who fits best into the "teen dream" recent history of winners in this category. Go with Channing and cross your fingers for a strip-acceptance.

Best Female Performance

The Hunger Games

Anne Hathaway – "Les Misérables"

Emma Watson – "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"

Jennifer Lawrence – "Silver Linings Playbook"

Mila Kunis – "Ted"

Rebel Wilson – "Pitch Perfect"

I know I just said that overlap with Oscar is rare, but with the exception of host Rebel Wilson, I can't see anyone besting Jennifer Lawrence here. And rightly so! Give her a chance to ascend to a stage without tripping this time. (Lawrence also won this award last year for "The Hunger Games," meaning MTV actually kicked off her Year of Awards, and now they'll bookend it.)

Breakthrough Performance

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Eddie Redmayne – "Les Misérables"

Ezra Miller – "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"

Quvenzhané Wallis – "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Rebel Wilson – "Pitch Perfect"

Suraj Sharma – "Life of Pi"

A Quvenzhane Wallis win would be great TV, but it seems more likely that Rebel Wilson will win, since she's, like, already going to be there and stuff.

Best Villain

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Javier Bardem – "Skyfall"

Leonardo DiCaprio – "Django Unchained"

Marion Cotillard – "The Dark Knight Rises"

Tom Hardy – "The Dark Knight Rises"

Tom Hiddleston – "The Avengers"

While I would love to see Hiddleston's crucially important villainy justly rewarded (especially over wheel-spinning from the likes of DiCaprio), this seems like something that will go to either an established star like Bardem or DiCaprio, or else a "Hey, here's what he looks like" moment for Tom Hardy.

Best Hero

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Christian Bale - "The Dark Knight Rises"

Robert Downey Jr. - "The Avengers"

Martin Freeman - "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

Anne Hathaway - "The Dark Knight Rises"

Mark Ruffalo - "The Avengers"

Kristen Stewart - "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Six nominees here, because who could leave off Hathaway's ambivalent Catwoman off of a list of Best Heroes (?!). I kid, though -- Hathaway's is probably the best performance of all six, give or take a Ruffalo. My guess is that this becomes a Batman vs. Avengers affair, with the hot hand belonging to Robert Downey Jr.

Best Scared-as-S**t Performance

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Alexandra Daddario – "Texas Chainsaw 3D"

Jennifer Lawrence – "House at the End of the Street"

Jessica Chastain – "Zero Dark Thirty"

Martin Freeman – "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

Suraj Sharma – "Life of Pi"

Good Lord, what I wouldn't give to see Jessica Chastain ascend the stage and accept a trophy on behalf of "Zero Dark Thirty" in THIS category. More likely this will be a double-dip opportunity for Jennifer Lawrence, which is seriously like ALL the salt in Chastain's wounds. Loses the Oscar to Lawrence, now loses the MTV award to Lawrence for a move that literally not one person saw. Ouch.

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Channing Tatum – "Magic Mike"

Christian Bale – "The Dark Knight Rises"

Daniel Craig – "Skyfall"

Seth MacFarlane – "Ted"

Taylor Lautner – "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2"

Interesting that after four consecutive years of straight-up dominance, this is the only place where "Twilight" shows up on the ballot. Don't put it past Lautner to win here, though I think the obvious advantage goes to Channing Tatum. It's the "Lawrence of Arabia" of shirtless-dude movies. There's no way it will be denied.

Summer's Biggest Teen Bad A**

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Chloë Grace Moretz - "Kick-Ass 2"

Logan Lerman - "Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters"

Lily Collins - "The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones"

Jaden Smith - "After Earth"

Well, it looks like the recent trend of awarding movies before they even open will continue at this year's Awards. I like that "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" has raised Logan Lerman's profile enough that people are paying attention to the "Percy Jackson" franchise for the first time ever. And God bless MTV for valiantly aiding Hollywood's effort to make Phil Collins's daughter a thing.

But this is coming down to Chloe Moretz and Will Smith's son. The nepotism factor is a strong one, and nobody has awarded Will Smith more often than MTV, but doesn't this category seem like a thin excuse to give Chloe Moretz an award of some kind?

Best Kiss

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Emma Watson and Logan Lerman – "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"

Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper – "Silver Linings Playbook"

Kara Hayward and Jared Gilman – "Moonrise Kingdom"

Kerry Washington and Jamie Foxx – "Django Unchained"

Mila Kunis and Mark Wahlberg – "Ted"

I have made the case previously and elsewhere that the Best Kiss category is the crown jewel of the MTV Movie Awards. It's both what distinguishes it from other shows and is the most interesting anthropological study of what we've valued in movie relationships over the years.

Once again, for the first time since 2008, the winner won't be Bella and Edward from "Twilight," so who does that open the door for? Lawrence and Cooper are kind of the A-list option, Watson and Lerman are the next-gen option, and Sam and Suzy from "Moonrise Kingdom" would be a nod towards characters over star power. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Watson and Lerman take this, but it's kind of a toss-up category.

Best Fight

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Robert Downey, Jr., Chris Evans, Mark Ruffalo, Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson and Jeremy Renner vs. Tom Hiddleston – "The Avengers"

Christian Bale vs. Tom Hardy – "The Dark Knight Rises"

Jamie Foxx vs. Candieland Henchmen – "Django Unchained"

Daniel Craig vs. Ola Rapace – "Skyfall"

Mark Wahlberg vs. Seth MacFarlane – "Ted"

"Avengers" has the advantage of numbers, and thus the advantage of more movie stars ascending to the stage to accept the award. But I have a feeling the comedy-fight wins the day this time, so get ready for "Ted" to once again take over an award show.

Best On-Screen Duo

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Robert Downey, Jr. and Mark Ruffalo – "The Avengers"

Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis – "The Campaign"

Leonardo DiCaprio and Samuel L. Jackson – "Django Unchained"

Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper – "Silver Linings Playbook"

Mark Wahlberg and Seth MacFarlane – "Ted"

Interesting that Downey and Ruffalo are singled out for "The Avengers" over any of the other possible pairings. At the risk of over-rewarding the same film, this feels like another "Ted" moment.

Best Musical Moment

Anne Hathaway — "I Dreamed a Dream" (from "Les Misérables")

Channing Tatum, Matt Bomer, Joe Manganiello, Kevin Nash and Adam Rodríguez — "It's Raining Men" (from "Magic Mike")

Emma Watson, Logan Lerman and Ezra Miller — "Come On Eileen" (from "The Perks of Being a Wallflower")

Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Anna Camp, Brittany Snow, Alexis Knapp, Ester Dean and Hana Mae Lee — "No Diggity" (from "Pitch Perfect")

Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper — "Don't You Worry 'bout a Thing / Fell in Love with a Girl" (from "Silver Linings Playbook")

This is probably the one award that Hathaway most deserves for her "Les Mis" performance, and it's the one she won't get. The fact that Rebel Wilson, Anna Kendrick, and the "Pitch Perfect" gang will be performing live on stage at the show kind of tips the hand of this category more than a bit.

Best WTF Moment

Warning: NSFW & Spoilers

Hack-Apella – Anna Camp (from "Pitch Perfect")

Final Descent – Denzel Washington (from "Flight")

Candieland Gets Smoked – Jamie Foxx and Samuel L. Jackson (from "Django Unchained")

Oops … There Goes His Face – Javier Bardem (from "Skyfall")

Ted Gets Saucy – Seth MacFarlane (from "Ted")

Gotta give something to "Django." Might as well be this. (Also, to quibble, shouldn't it be "Yak-Apella"?)