Meet our new awards expert Joe Reid — keep up with his column for the predictions, news and opinions you’ll need to sound well-informed at parties for the entire awards season.
I made a vow to myself, when I started writing this column, that I would go as long as I could without using the word "snubs." It's such a false construct, writing negative intention on awards voters who, for all we know, liked the unnominated film or performer SIXTH-BEST out of everybody. That's not snubbery. That's the limits of mathematics.
That said, missing out on a nomination is missing out on a nomination. No two ways about that. And missing out on a nomination for a precursor award can tell us something about how the Oscar race is shaking out. So without using the s-word, here's a look at who got omitted from this week's Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe nominations and what that means for their Oscar chances.
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Though I expected her to get a Globe nomination anyway, it's hard for an actress who isn't a "name" to find traction with the Hollywood Foreign Press. So while her absence from this list is disappointing, it can't be completely shocking. Not getting a SAG nomination is tougher to swallow and could be indicative of a weakening Oscar campaign.
Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Beasts" wasn't eligible for SAG, which takes away some of the sting. But that wasn't the case for the Globes, which bypassed the feel-good story of watching the little tyke mingle with Hugh Jackman and Helen Mirren at the ceremony* so they could nominate bigger stars. Makes me wonder about the relative strength of Wallis "good story" appeal to Oscar voters.
*But, seriously, can you imagine? Sitting at the Fox Searchlight table with Judi Dench, sipping her Shirley Temple, making Spielberg wait until she's done talking to Kathryn Bigelow?
Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
Poor Matthew. It was his year! The Year of Wooderson! All right, all right, all ... oh, whatever. It turns out the Best Supporting Actor category may be too crowded with beloved oldsters in Best Picture nominees and Weinstein-supported "Django" cast members. It's too bad. I'm not giving up, though! Time to start checking those "Missed SAG and Globe but Nominated for Oscar" lists (Max Von Sydow! Michael Shannon!).
Robert DeNiro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
I had a feeling that one of the four veterans in Supporting Actor would fall away to make room for a "Django" guy (in this case, two guys), but I guessed Arkin and it turned out to be DeNiro. Is it something to be worried about that he was on the outs of this particular list? Maybe. I still think Arkin's role is slighter, but DeNiro's doesn't exactly hold up to much scrutiny either. This could be a nail-biter category down to Oscar nomination morning.
Samantha Barks and Eddie Redmayne, "Les Miserables"
Redmayne kept getting talked up as the dark horse of the "Les Mis" cast, but, again, that Supporting Actor category was too stacked. Barks, however, was looking to crash a category that has a lot of open space available. Looks like her newbie status wasn't enough to overtake vets like Amy Adams and Nicole Kidman.
Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams, "The Master"
These two missed out on SAG but had their bacon saved by the Globes. That's really not the way you want that split to fall if you're looking to feel confident about your Oscar prospects. Adams is in the less-competitive category at the moment, so she probably looking like the more solid of the two, though if Kidman really is a contender now (and you'd have to say she is), that starts to make things like a lot tighter. One good push for Ann Dowd in "Compliance" could mean the end for Amy. As for Joaquin, Best Actor is a solid six-man race, and right now, the SAG lineup of Day-Lewis, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper, and Jackman is looking awfully plausible as an Oscar lineup.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Zero Golden Globe nominations means a lot of things and doesn't mean a lot of others. The Globes have never been indie-crazy, so it's not like this is a rejection of something they'd usually go for. But it means a whole lot of lost opportunity for visibility down the road. That said, it could be a campaign plus, if Searchlight wants to spin it to Oscar voters as a way to prove they're more legitimate than those crass, star-gazing Globes.
I guess all my hand-wringing about whether it was best categorized as a drama, comedy, or musical was for naught, since Steven Soderbergh's stripper opus got a whole lotta nothing. It was never going to be a major player beyond McConaughey, but way to miss out on the Year of Channing Tatum, HFPA.
So if everybody listed above has lost Oscar momentum, who has gained it? Here are the week's big winners:
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
All three of these women looked like they were scrambling for the same Best Actress slot, and yet all three saw nominations at both SAG and the Golden Globes. That's a very good sign. They all have to hope that Oscar voters don't look to play contrarian with less glitzy women like Riva and Wallis, but it's looking good at the moment.
The latest-breaking of all the contenders had a huge day with the Globes, nabbing nominations for Picture, Director, Screenplay, and two Supporting Actors. Is this just a case of the Hollywood Foreign Press grabbing at the last shiny bauble waved in front of their faces? Maybe. I still don't think it cracks Oscar's Best Picture lineup. But it's certainly on the short list for all the major categories now. Christoph Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio both got a huge boost, but they now have to worry that they might split each other's votes with the Academy.
Javier Bardem, "Skyfall"
He missed out on a Globe nomination, but his recognition by SAG bodes very well for his Oscar chances, since actors make up a huge percentage of Academy voters, while Hollywood Foreign Press members make up roughly 0%. Oscar really loves him (three nominations and one win), but is it enough to get them to nominate a Bond actor for the first time ever?
Nicole Kidman, "The Paperboy"
Look, I can't believe it's happening either. But Globe AND SAG awards for the movie where, yes, she pees on Zac Efron just happened. We can't deny that. But a lot of people were really impressed with how Kidman stood out among the utter garbage that was "The Paperboy," so maybe that, plus her star power, are enough in a weak category. Then again, she could be Mila Kunis in "Black Swan" -- glitzy star, lurid role, SAG and Globe nominations, but nothing from Oscar.
Also check out Oscar Predictions 2013, Our Picks Thus Far
This year’s Golden Globes snubs and SAG Awards nominations surprises come from the eerily prescient mind of our awards expert, Joe Reid.