When "The Watch" began pre-production in 2008 (then titled "Neighborhood Watch"), it seemed destined for success. Shawn Levy was set to produce, with David Dobkin directing and Will Ferrell in the lead role.

That version fell apart, and by November 2010, the project had reassembled to an even greater potential, as Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg came aboard to rewrite the script and "Saturday Night Live" alumni Akiva Schaffer was brought on to direct.  The stars signed on in rapid succession: Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, Jonah Hill and Richard Ayoade.

It's the ideal blend for Average Moviegoer ("Ben Stiller! I love that guy!") and Slightly More Sophisticated Moviegoer ("Richard Ayoade! I'll go just to see him."). The premise is amusing -- wannabe tough guys stumble on an alien invasion -- and it offered a pleasant enough way to spend two summer hours.

But "Neighborhood Watch" quickly ran up against a tragic event.  On February 26, 2012, Trayvon Martin was shot and killed by George Zimmerman, the designated neighborhood watch coordinator for a gated community in Sanford, Florida.  The tragedy became -- and remains -- an international incident, heavily politicized, protested and mourned.

By sheer bad luck, "Watch" debuted its initial marketing campaign on February 29, 2012 with a teaser poster, trailer and an unfortunately-named website, jointhewatch.com. By March 27, 20th Century Fox had yanked the poster and the teaser. The poster had featured a bullet-ridden "Neighborhood Watch" sign; the teaser trailer had featured Hill miming a gun with his hand and pretending to shoot teenagers.

It was harmless -- if edgy -- humor, prior to the Martin case, but seemed callous after. On May 4, the studio changed the title to "The Watch," further distancing itself from the buzzwords of the news cycle, and began emphasizing the alien element, with the trailers and television spots implying this group of brash do-gooders has always been hunting for aliens.

As if the Martin case weren't enough of an painful tragedy to overcome, "The Watch" is now set to be released on the weekend after the devastating event in Aurora, Colorado. The new posters, boldly asking if moviegoers "Got Protection?" seem awkward and raw in a week where people are painfully aware of how dangerous any public place can be, while debates rage about safety, gun control and personal protection.

Will we see "The Watch" take a nosedive at the box office, its subject matter no longer a laughing matter, but reminiscent of everything we've been lamenting and mourning in America?

Iit's reasonable to believe many people initially steered clear of the multiplex out of distress and respect.  Audiences may feel more comfortable going back this weekend, but are they going to want to see "The Watch"?

Between the Martin case and the Aurora shooting, the subject matter may just be too glib for the national mood.  It seems a lot less amusing to watch four men stomping pavement, ready to fight, buffonish in their persecution of anything and anyone that looks suspicious. Even with Fox playing up the sci-fi angle, the focus remains on those four men, their police shades and their custom jackets.  If the humor felt forced before, it really seems threatening and unpleasant now.

That said, if past movies are any indication, Americans find it relatively easy to separate fictional blockbusters from current events. "The Matrix" was released on March 31, 1999. The Columbine school shooting happened less than a month later, on April 20, 1999. News outlets, desperate for a scapegoat, hauled out "The Matrix" as an inspiration, primarily due to its heroes wearing trenchcoats.  It remained at the top of the box office that weekend. In fact, it climbed, having been #2 the previous weekend. Moviegoers weren't deterred by its spray of bullets and ominously clad characters, no matter what news organizations and talking heads insisted.

"Phone Booth," the sniper-oriented thriller, was delayed for five months after the Beltway sniper attacks in 2003. Five months is a lot of breathing room, the same amount of time as is occurring between the Martin case and the release of "The Watch." It worked for "Phone Booth," which opened at #1 on April 4, 2003.

By contrast, the Arnold Schwarzenegger terrorist flick "Collateral Damage" was yanked from its original release date of October 5, 2001, mere weeks after September 11th. Not only was the marketing altered -- the original trailer featured a major bomb attack on U.S. soil -- but the film itself was recut, with an entire airplane hijacking plot removed. It was released five months later to critical and box office failure. Was it because it was a bad movie? Or because America was uninterested in anything that dealt with fictional terrorism? It's debatable since five years later, they were nearly as uninterested in a good movie dealing with the actual event of 9/11. "United 93" opened at #2 on April 28, 2006 and dropped steadily at the box office for the ten weeks it was in theaters.

While five months seems to be Hollywood's standard safety window, it's difficult to compare, say,  "Phone Booth" with "The Watch," as the Beltway attack received considerably less attention than the Trayvon Martin case. The Martin case is not only ongoing, but routinely injected with new quotes and information.

"The Watch" doesn't seem to be tracking spectacularly well at this time and it has no Tomatometer rating yet, so it is impossible to know how much interest there truly is. Unless moviegoers are desperate for R-rated comedies this week -- and they may be -- and buzz overtakes ugly and mean associations, "The Watch" has an uphill battle to climb.

For all the talent involved, we hope it rallies, and gives people a fun, happy, hilarious reason to go to the movies.