So much goes into predicting and ultimately deciding Oscar nominations that it can be difficult to decide which award shows to pay attention to and which to ignore. This week's Oscar nominations, however, proved that one award show in particular can be very useful in predicting some of the Academy's more surprising picks.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards announced their nominations weeks before the Academy's and showed that their picks should not be overlooked during award season. SAG both honored and turned away many of the same performances that the Academy shocked and snubbed earlier this week.
Here's our breakdown.
The "A Better Life" actor had stayed just outside the award conversation for most of the season, earning some recognition with critics' circles, but never snagging a big nod. That changed with the SAG awards, which gave Bichir recognition that the Academy echoed weeks later.
One of the most daring roles in film this year didn't yield award returns to the man who bared it all, Michael Fassbender. He may have earned a Golden Globe nomination for his role as a sex addict in "Shame," but Fassbender didn't repeat for the Screen Actors Guild and was ultimately shut out at the Oscars. It just goes to show that nudity doesn't always mean awards.
If the Golden Globes nominate a big star, it's never a guarantee that an Academy Award nomination will follow. While Hill was a more likely nod than Bichir was before the Oscar nominations, he was far from a lock. The SAG nomination certainly helped bolster his chances, and when the Academy's nod came weeks later, it was much less of a surprise.
Throughout award season, Brooks made no secret of the campaign to get him a nomination for his villainous role in "Drive." He joked openly and often about his nominations and wins, but when he missed out on a SAG nomination, the laughing stopped, and the conversation changed. The Academy snub this week came as only a mildly surprising disappointment.
The "Bridesmaids" breakout went through a series of ups and downs during her campaign for a nomination. The buzz around the role and the film's popularity catapulted McCarthy into the conversation, but a snub at the Golden Globes made some doubt that the Academy would recognize a comedic role. Fortunately for McCarthy, she rode the wave of the SAG nomination and turned it into her ticket to Oscar night.
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