Donald Trump is the most talked about player in the 2016 presidential race so far. But, despite polls and panic from every media outlet -- could America's proudest billionaire for real, no-joke win the Republican nomination -- or even the presidency?

The answer for many pundits is a definitive "no," paired with a "Come on, it's August," dismissive laughter or very long odds. For others, it's a bit more complicated (and, either way, it's kind of a clusterf--k.)

To look closer at the real likelihood of seeing a Commander-In-Trump after election day 2016 (again, 453 days from now), MTV News turned to some pros: Geoff Layman, a Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame who specializes in political parties and voter behavior and Jim Miller, a game theorist and Professor of Economics at Smith College.

First off, the polls don't necessarily mean what you think they mean.

Even if your feeds and a few polls read "Trump is #1," Layman said it's important to remember that the Republican nomination process actually works state-by-state.

"The thing to remember is that the nomination process is not a national election. The polls are not going to translate into the nomination," Layman told MTV News. "We have Ohio, New Hampshire, South Carolina -- we have some states with caucuses, instead of primaries, that have a lot more to do with having a strong political organization on the ground and reaching people in a one-on-one way.

"The nomination process involves a lot more political experience and a team with political experience than coming in [first in] a public opinion poll,” he said. And, at this point, Trump doesn't exactly have a lot of boots on the ground in those critical early primary states.

It doesn't help, Layman adds, that this early in the game few people know all the candidates well enough to make an informed polling decision just yet: A lot of times they just go with the name they know best (that would be Reality TV star and "Home Alone 2" guest star Trump) or the one they are hearing about more in the news (again, that's Trump.)

"Trump is benefitting by being a household name," Layman told MTV News. “His running strong could’ve been predicted [because of that.] We would not have predicted [him doing] this well, but again -- it's August."

Trump's 'tude is primal, but will it help him?

Jim Miller studies (and makes videos about) game theory -- a mathematical look at decision-making behaviors, assuming that the person wants to optimize what's best for them. He came up with an analogy for us, when it comes to Trump's larger-than-life behavior so far in this election: He's like a prison inmate who commits to a clearly offensive tattoo (use your imaginations here, but make it bad) in an impossible-to-hide place.

“Some people in criminal gangs or in prison get these tattoos that are really deeply offensive to the general population... This is useful for signaling to a gang," Miller told MTV News. “You get a tattoo that’s really offensive to signal that you’re not going to just end up working in a Starbucks later in life. You’re committed."

By acting out and insulting his competition and critics, Miller said Trump is signaling that he doesn't give a f--k about who he offends. Which makes it clear that he's not playing the same game as the other candidates. That's what's keeping the attention on him.

"It seems crazy… but it’s a good signaling move," Miller said. "The value of offending people right away is to say they are not going to be afraid of offending them later.”

Miller says Trump's tactics -- direct attacks on those who criticize or attack him -- are very "alpha male," not unlike those of chimpanzees fighting for dominance: "If another chimp challenges you, you kind of have to knock them down." These actions could mean he's either "a narcissist or a clever strategist" who believes his bravado will resonate with Americans disillusioned by the system.

But Layman says Trump's antagonistic approach certainly isn't going to win him the Republican nomination -- or the election. “He’s not a conservative darling. It’s not even clear he is conservative. He cannot win the general election,” Layman added. “He’s alienated women and Latino voters consistently and is consistently the weaker candidate.”

How is the rest of The Party going to play?

Both Miller and Layman agree that the Republican Party as a whole does not want Trump to stick around for too long, but the way to get rid of him remains elusive.

Trump's attitude is part of what keeps the game going: He's boorish, unflinchingly self-assured and stupidly wealthy, a trifecta that puts him in a better position to do some real damage if he runs as a third party/independent candidate. As we learned from Ross Perot -- another well-known rich guy who ran independently in 1992, got 18.9 percent of the vote and arguably cost G.W. Bush the election to Bill Clinton -- a big-name third party candidacy can easily mean doom, gloom and defeat in the Game of Elections.

"I think it’s very difficult for them as a party to respond to Trump because that would mean that for the party to do something like leave him out of the debates... it just fuels the fire for him in an independent run," Layman said. "Probably the only the thing the party can really do is rely on its candidates to take him down."

Miller said that while a few of the other candidates could maybe try to parrot Trump's attitude and challenge him, it's not something they could likely pull off for long, given Trump's history of escalating the conflict. If another candidate is still trying to look diplomatic and presidential, trying to out-Trump him isn't an option.

Instead, both agree that the Republicans are going to want to narrow their field. The sooner they have one or two solid names that can compete in the media and the public eye with Trump -- as opposed to a parade of near-unknowns -- the better off they'll be.

"His 20 to 25% in polls is pretty formidable now, but six months from now? If there's only 1 or 2 candidates that same level of support may not be enough to get it done," he said.

We've seen this before -- with Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and even Ben Carson -- candidates who garner a lot of support early on, despite having little political experience or a real shot at winning. But, even further, Trump lacks any solid plans, policies or platforms as of yet. Unlike the previous early-boom candidates, his praise (and poll results) are based on name and attitude alone.

"There’s usually a lot of chaos early in a nomination process and most of the time. Not always, but most of the time, the establishment candidates end up rising to the top," Layman said. "This chaos tends to take care of itself."

The TL;DR version: It's still too early in the game to be certain of anything, but the three presidential prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight put Trump's chances at 2%, 0% and -10%, Layman gave it a 0% and Miller puts the odds somewhere "under 10 percent (but not under 1 percent)," making the chance of Trump inauguration in 2017 slim to nonexistent.