The good news and the bad news for awards season 2012 is actually the same thing. The good news: all of the serious contenders for Best Picture are actually pretty good, so it's not a pain to watch them ahead of the major award shows. The bad news: all of the contenders are good, making predicting the category is more or less a shot in the dark. (Please forgive the pun, Mr. President.)
Ahead of tonight's Golden Globe Awards, we've done our best to break down the top categories, both Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy and Best Motion Picture - Drama. One seems much easier to predict, but all that can change in a matter of hours.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Who Should Win: Since it didn't make the cut for Best Pictures at the Academy Awards, a win for "Moonrise Kingdom" would be a nice way to honor Wes Anderson's bold and beautiful story of young love. Since "Moonrise" will leave this awards season with an Oscar for Original Screenplay at best, and frankly, it deserves better.
Who Will Win: Be surprised if anything other than "Les Mis" takes the top prize on the musical/comedy side of things. "Silver Linings Playbook" could ride the waves of some of the lukewarm talk around the favorite and Tom Hooper's much maligned direction, but don't count on it. "Les Mis" has the star power and the dramatic storyline to carry it across the finish line.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Who Should Win: While a win from pretty much any movie on this list would please us, the only of the contenders to end up on our Best of the Year list was Kathryn Bigelow's "Zero Dark Thirty." The recent controversy surrounding the film's depiction of torture has unfairly hurt its awards chances, but we're holding out hope.
Who Will Win: This race is much less clear than Musical or Comedy. The current (narrow) awards favorite is "Lincoln," but that film's Americaness could affect the vote from the HFPA. If "Lincoln" doesn't take the gold, expect to see recent Oscar-snub Ben Affleck taking the stage.
Can "Zero Dark Thirty" track down victory? Will "Les Miserables" hear the voters sing? Check in with MTV News on Sunday night for the 2013 Golden Globes winners, and don't miss all the fashion from the Golden Globes red carpet!