Katy Perry, Rihanna Are VMA Favorites, Oddsmakers Say

Justin Bieber and One Direction are also in the hunt for Video Music Award glory, expert oddsmakers tell MTV News.

The 2012 MTV Video Music Awards are less than one week away, and if you’re like me (a problem gambler), you’ve no doubt been checking out the rapidly-shifting odds in each of the VMA categories and positively freaking out. (Trust me, you’ve never truly watched the show if you haven’t had a ton of cash riding on Best Hip-Hop Video.)

Because this year, it seems that there are no clear-cut favorites at the VMAs. The nominations are spread evenly across the board (Drake and Rihanna lead the pack with five apiece, followed closely by Katy Perry with four … and a whole bunch of other folks with three), and the stars are struggling to separate themselves from the rest of the field.

So what is the panicked gambler to do? How about reach out to two of the best oddsmakers in the business, Bovada.lv sportsbook manager Kevin Bradley and our friends across the pond at Ladbrokes, to get their picks for what’s sure to be a wild show. As it turns out, even they’re having a hard time establishing the favorites, which means that this year, you may be forced to use the most reliable method available: Stick the VMA nominations on a dartboard and fire away.

Here are the experts’ odds for the 2012 Video Music Awards.

Video of the Year

Bovada’s Take: “This is a three-way race with Gotye having the slight edge,” Bradley said. “Of course, both Katy Perry and Rihanna have won this award before …”

» Gotye, “Somebody That I Used to Know,” 11/10

» Katy Perry, “Wide Awake,” 11/5

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 12/5

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 19/2

» M.I.A., “Bad Girls,” 25/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Katy Perry, “Wide Awake,” 2/1

» Gotye, “Somebody That I Used to Know,” 3/1

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 7/2

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 7/2

» M.I.A., “Bad Girls,” 5/1

Best New Artist

Bovada’s Take: “We have Carly Rae Jepsen a clear favorite here,” Bradley said. “We already have taken quite a bit of money on her and can only see her [odds] going higher, if anything.”

» Carly Rae Jepsen, “Call Me Maybe,” 1/2

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 3/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 8/1

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 13/2

» The Wanted, “Glad You Came,” 18/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 1/7

» Carly Rae Jepsen, “Call Me Maybe,” 10/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 10/1

» The Wanted, “Glad You Came,” 12/1

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 14/1

Best Pop Video

Bovada’s Take: “We have Justin Bieber with a slight edge over One Direction here,” Bradley said. “But our sharp entertainment bettors did throw a few bucks on ‘We Are Young.’ ”

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 7/5

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 19/10

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 8/1

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 11/4

» Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa, “Payphone,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» One Direction, “What Makes You Beautiful,” 4/6

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 11/8

» Fun., “We Are Young,” 16/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 16/1

» Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa, “Payphone,” 20/1

Best Hip-Hop Video

Bovada’s Take: “We have ‘Heartbeat’ at 25-1, the biggest long shot in any category,” Bradley said. “We just cannot see this having any type of chance, but you never know.”

» Nicki Minaj feat. 2 Chainz, “Beez in the Trap,” 5/6

» The Throne, “Paris,” 2/1

» Drake feat. Lil Wayne, “HYFR,” 7/1

» Kanye West feat. Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz, “Mercy,” 5/1

» Childish Gambino, “Heartbeat,” 25/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Nicki Minaj feat. 2 Chainz, “Beez in the Trap,” 5/4

» Kanye West feat. Pusha T, Big Sean and 2 Chainz, “Mercy,” 2/1

» Drake feat. Lil Wayne, “HYFR,” 4/1

» Childish Gambino, “Heartbeat,” 7/1

» The Throne, “Paris,” 7/1

Best Rock Video

Bovada’s Take: “Best Rock Video always seems the toughest to handicap,” Bradley said. “But we feel Coldplay is the right favorite here.”

» Coldplay, “Paradise,” 5/7

» The Black Keys, “Lonely Boy,” 11/5

» Linkin Park, “BURN IT DOWN,” 8/1

» Jack White, “Sixteen Saltines,” 13/2

» Imagine Dragons, “It’s Time,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Linkin Park, “BURN IT DOWN,” 7/4

» Coldplay, “Paradise,” 9/4

» The Black Keys, “Lonely Boy,” 5/2

» Jack White, “Sixteen Saltines,” 5/1

» Imagine Dragons, “It’s Time,” 7/1

Best Male Video

Bovada’s Take: “The second category where we have Bieber as the favorite,” Bradley said, “but the long shot, Chris Brown, has been appealing to some bettors so far.”

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 4/5

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 11/5

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 21/4

» Usher, “Climax,” 9/1

» Chris Brown, “Turn Up the Music,” 12/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Justin Bieber, “Boyfriend,” 1/6

» Frank Ocean, “Swim Good,” 8/1

» Usher, “Climax,” 8/1

» Drake feat. Rihanna, “Take Care,” 12/1

» Chris Brown, “Turn Up the Music,” 20/1

Best Female Video

Bovada’s Take: “It was difficult to decide who should be the front-runner here, and we essentially have Katy Perry and Rihanna in a dead heat,” Bradley said. “No money has really come in on anyone but them.”

» Katy Perry, “Part of Me,” 1/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 11/10

» Beyoncé, “Love on Top,” 10/1

» Selena Gomez and the Scene, “Love You Like a Love Song,” 12/1

» Nicki Minaj, “Starships,” 15/1

Ladbrokes’ Take:

» Katy Perry, “Part of Me,” 6/4

» Nicki Minaj, “Starships,” 2/1

» Rihanna, “We Found Love,” 9/2

» Beyoncé, “Love on Top,” 9/2

» Selena Gomez and the Scene, “Love You Like a Love Song,” 6/1

The 2012 MTV Video Music Awards will air live from Staples Center in Los Angeles on Thursday, September 6, at 8 p.m. ET/PT. Head to VMA.MTV.com or text BNA to 22444 (message and data rates may apply) to vote for Best New Artist all the way through the show! Get the latest VMA updates sent right to your inbox: Sign up for the MTV News Alert.