Will Justin Bieber Get Shut Out At The Grammys?

History does not paint a pretty picture for Bieber's Grammy chances, in Bigger Than the Sound.

Listen, True Beliebers: I know you’re really excited for the Grammys. Like, really excited. And why wouldn’t you be? After all, not only is JB up for a pair of awards — Best New Artist and Best Pop Vocal Album — but he’s performing on the big show too .

But I’m here to tell you that you might want to make backup plans during the Grammy broadcast (Sunday, February 13, at 8 p.m. ET/PT on CBS, in case you’re a masochist or something). Why? Because it could be a pretty lousy night for Justin Bieber. They’re not going to cut his mic off mid-performance or pants him or anything like that, mostly because the Grammys stopped pantsing people after the tragic Kriss Kross incident of 1992. But they will do something equally bad, at least in the eyes of the Bieber’s die-hard fans: They will probably send him home empty-handed.

Yes, you read that correctly. Justin Bieber will likely not win a single Grammy at next weekend’s show. In the Best Pop Vocal Album category, he’s up against juggernauts like Lady Gaga’s The Fame Monster, Katy Perry’s Teenage Dream and even Susan Boyle’s I Dreamed a Dream (which just might be the favorite, since it’s the kind of album Grammy voters love). I get the feeling even Bieber fans might concede that one, turning their focus instead to Best New Artist. Because, really, he’s got a realistic chance there, right?

Wrong. And it has less to do with hatred as it does with history. The last solo male artist to win BNA? John Legend in 2006. And that was John Legend! The last heartthrob to take home the award? That was Tom Jones, way back in 1966 (unless you count Christopher Cross in 1981, and that’s only if you define “heartthrob” as “portly dudes who are really into sailing”). Seems Grammy voters — perhaps still stinging from the 1990 fiasco, when they gave Best New Artist to Milli Vanilli then subsequently stripped them of it when it was discovered the duo didn’t actually sing on their own record — are wary to hand the hardware over to male pop acts, especially if they make teenage girls swoon.

Couple that with the fact that, if he were to win, Bieber would not only become the second-youngest male artist to ever take home a Grammy (and the youngest-ever to do it as a solo artist; Luis Miguel won a Grammy at the age of 14, but he did it thanks to a duet with Sheena Easton). Justly or not, the Grammys rarely reward the young — and, at just 16, Bieber is plenty young.

So based solely on the fact that young girls like him and his being born in 1994, I don’t think Bieber has a shot at winning Best New Artist. Who does? My money’s on Florence and the Machine, since she’s the kind of act Grammy voters tend to go batty for — ethereal, classic, British. Sure, I may be biased, since I think Florence Welch is pretty great , but I think she’s the best bet here. Or maybe Mumford & Sons. They’re sort of like the Starland Vocal Band, after all.

And, again, I have nothing against Justin Bieber. I think he’s a pretty cool kid, and he can totally dribble a basketball between his legs . I just think there’s too much track record to suggest that he can win a Grammy this year. But who knows? Maybe he’ll make history, and if he does, I’ll be the first to print a public apology. But I feel pretty confident about this one. That means that, on Grammy night, perhaps the best thing his fans can hope for is a transcendent performance and an overall lack of pantsing. Otherwise, they might end up like this.

Will Justin Bieber win a Grammy? Share your thoughts in the comments!