VMA Predictions: How Did Our Oddsmaker Do?

Lady Gaga and Eminem were the big winners, just like Richard Gardner forecasted.

So how did our oddsmaker fare with his predictions for who would take home the top prizes for the 2010 MTV Video Music Awards? Well, if you’re a betting man (or woman), he wasn’t too shabby.

Before the VMAs went down Sunday night, MTV News chatted with Richard Gardner, sportsbook manager for Bodog.com, and asked him to weigh in on which musicians would dominate at the awards show. Gardner guessed every major award correctly except one. We’re impressed! Let’s review his thoughts and reveal the actual outcomes.

Best Female Video
Lady Gaga, “Bad Romance”: 2/5
Katy Perry (featuring Snoop Dogg), “California Gurls”: 7/2
Taylor Swift, “Fifteen”: 7/1
Beyoncé (featuring Lady Gaga), “Video Phone”: 8/1
Ke$ha, “Tik Tok”: 11/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “Although Best Female Video will probably go to Ms. Gaga at 2/5, Katy Perry and Snoop Dogg’s ‘California Gurls’ Candy Land trip is a strong contender at 7/2. Meanwhile, we don’t think Taylor Swift will win for ‘Fifteen’ with 7/1 odds, but if she does, Kanye will have to scramble to put a speech together.”

Who Actually Won: Gaga

Best Male Video
Eminem, “Not Afraid”: 11/10
B.o.B (featuring Hayley Williams), “Airplanes”: 2/1
Jason Derülo, “In My Head”: 4/1
Usher featuring Will.I.Am, “OMG”: 11/2
Drake, “Find Your Love”: 10/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “Without a Gaga to contend with, the odds are more interesting for Best Male Video. Eminem’s comeback is officially a success and thus, we’re pitting the master of the internal rhyme as the favorite to win. We’ve given B.o.B and Hayley Williams the 2/1 second favorite, and although we are fans of Jason Derülo’s song ‘In My Head,’ we don’t necessarily like its chances to win at 4/1.”

Who Actually Won: Eminem

Best Rock Video
Muse, “Uprising”: 7/5
Florence and the Machine, “Dog Days Are Over”: 2/1
30 Seconds to Mars, “Kings and Queens””: 4/1
Paramore, “Ignorance”: 11/2
MGMT, “Flash Delirium”: 6/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “Muse is the favorite here at 7/5 for the sheer potency of the song ‘Uprising,’ while MGMT pulls up the rear at a respectable 6/1 with ‘Flash Delirium.’ This is a very close category with no heavy favorite and no real long shot. So far we’ve had a number of bettors taking a shot on ‘Kings and Queens’ at 4/1.”

Who Actually Won: 30 Seconds to Mars

Best Hip-Hop Video
Eminem, “Not Afraid”: 5/4
B.o.B (featuring Hayley Williams), “Airplanes”: 3/2
Drake, Kanye West, Lil Wayne and Eminem, “Forever”: 3/1
Kid Cudi (featuring MGMT and Ratatat), “Pursuit of Happiness”: 8/1
Jay-Z and Swizz Beatz, “On to the Next One”: 12/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “Eminem is a favorite here at 5/4 because everyone likes a comeback. He’s lost the weight, he’s looking sharp, and he’s working the introspective vibe that seems to be his best source of inspiration. Jay-Z and Swizz Beatz’s ‘On to the Next One’ definitely gets points for originality, and while Jay-Z has no shortage of fans, we think the black-and-white video is a little too avant-garde to take the win.”

Who Actually Won: Eminem

Best Pop Video
Lady Gaga, “Bad Romance”: 1/2
Katy Perry (featuring Snoop Dogg), “California Gurls”: 3/1
Beyoncé (featuring Lady Gaga), “Video Phone”: 13/2
Ke$ha, “Tik Tok”: 7/1
B.o.B (featuring Bruno Mars), “Nothin’ on You”: 12/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: ” ‘Bad Romance’ is an obvious favorite here at 1/2, based on nothing more than the Gaga factor. Katy Perry with Snoop Dogg is second favorite here at 3/1 with ‘California Gurls,’ while B.o.B featuring Bruno Mars is the long shot at 12/1 for ‘Nothin’ on You.’ ”

Who Actually Won: Gaga’s “Bad Romance”

Best New Artist
Justin Bieber (featuring Ludacris), “Baby”: 4/5
Ke$ha, “Tik Tok”: 2/1
Jason Derülo, “In My Head”: 7/2
Nicki Minaj (featuring Sean Garrett), “Massive Attack”: 12/1
Broken Bells, “The Ghost Inside”: 14/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “We can’t imagine a world where Justin Bieber doesn’t win for Best New Artist, which is why he’s a huge favorite at 4/5. The legions of fans out there with Bieber fever will make the difference and likely secure Bieber more hardware for his already buckling shelf. On the other side of the odds spectrum, Broken Bells’ ‘Ghost Inside’ is thought-provoking and engaging, but the buzz just isn’t there to make this one a contender. For those who disagree, the money is there to be made, as they pay out extremely well at 12/1.”

Who Actually Won: Bieber

Video of the Year
Lady Gaga, “Bad Romance””: 1/1
Lady Gaga (featuring Beyoncé), “Telephone”: 5/2
Eminem, “Not Afraid”: 11/2
B.o.B (featuring Hayley Williams), “Airplanes”: 6/1
Florence and the Machine, “Dog Days Are Over”: 10/1
30 Seconds to Mars, “Kings and Queens”: 12/1

Bodog’s Pre-Show Take: “Although we wouldn’t put our money on her being able to walk through an airport gracefully, Bodog’s odds suggest that Lady Gaga will take home the Video of the Year Award for ‘Bad Romance,’ a video so edgy you just can’t take your eyes off it. It’s safe to say we’re expecting the 2010 VMAs to feature a lot of Gaga. Meanwhile, the long shot of the bunch is ‘Kings and Queens,’ by 30 Seconds to Mars.”

Who Actually Won: Gaga’s “Bad Romance”

Were you surprised by the VMA winners? Let us know in the comments!

The Moonmen have all been handed out and the stars have gone home, but there’s plenty of 2010 MTV Video Music Awards news, interviews, behind-the-scenes scoop, party reports and more still to come, so keep it locked on MTVNews.com.